We all know the Titans have started the season 0-4.  But why?  Isn’t this pretty much the same team that started 10-0 last season?  We added some quality receivers in Nate Washington and Kenny Britt to an already powerful running game.  The Titans should be lighting up the scoreboard, but at the very least should not be letting other teams put points up at will.  This is not the case.  To find out why, let’s look at the numbers from the start of this season compared to the first four games of last season.  All the statistics from this season and last season are in two tables at the end of the post.

Offense

Overall

Through the first four games of the season, the Titans are averaging just 18.8 points compared to 25.5 points through the first four games of last season.  The team has only put up more than 17 points once this season.  Surprisingly, the Titans are actually averaging two more first downs a game compared to last season.  They are also converting almost 7% more third downs than last season.

Passing

The Titans appear to be relying much more heavily on the arm of Kerry Collins this season.  In the first four games of 2008, Collins only threw over 30 passes in a game once, averaging 26.5 attempts per game.  This season, he is averaging 38.5 attempts per game and has thrown at least 33 passes in each game.  With over 12 more passing attempts per game, the Titans only have 2 more passing touchdowns to show for it.  While Collins is completing approximately the same percentage of his passes, he is completing more passes to the other team.  The Titans have six interceptions, compared to just 3 at this point last season.

Rushing

The downside of Kerry Collins throwing the ball more is that it takes the ball out of the hands of the Titans’ best offensive weapon Chris Johnson.  The Titans are averaging 10 fewer rushing attempts per game this season.  Some of this is due to having to overcome early leads built up by Jacksonville and Houston.  Last season, the Titans rushed the ball at least 32 times in each of the first four games.  This season the Titans have rushed the ball 30 times once and a season low of 19 at Jacksonville (again because Jacksonville was scoring extremely fast).  With 43 less attempts, it is no surprise the Titans have scored 3 fewer rushing touchdowns this season.  Surprisingly, the Titans have been running the ball less even though they are averaging significantly more yards per carry (5.47 yds/carry in 2009 versus 3.78 yds/carry in 2008).

Turnovers

Turnovers are killing the Titans this season.  The team is averaging 1.5 interceptions and 1.25 fumbles per game.  That is twice as many interceptions and almost twice as many fumbles when compared to last season.  Opponents have scored 3 times off of the Titan’s 11 turnovers.  Last season, the Titans had six total turnovers through four games.

Defense

Overall

The Titans are giving up 27 points per game this season, compared to just 11.5 through the first four games of last season.  The Titans have allowed fewer than 20 points only once this season, and have given up at least 24 points in three games.  Last season, the Titans only gave up more than 12 points just once in the first four games, and never more than 17.  The Titans are giving up 6 more first downs per game this season, while allowing opponents to convert just slightly more third downs.

Pass Defense

The Titans are giving up over 100 more passing yards a game this season compared to 2008.  Through four games last season the Titans had only allowed 1 touchdown through the air, compared to 10 this season.  This season opponents are completing 67.7% of their passes.  Pittsburgh and Jacksonville both completed over 70% of their passes.  The Titans’ also have just 8 sacks this season compared to 15 last year (5 of which were due to Albert Haynesworth).  The Titans are the worst team in the league in terms of pass defense.  Only Jacksonville has allowed as many passing yards, and only Detroit has given up more passing touchdowns.

Rush Defense

The Titans are actually giving up fewer rushing yards this season without Albert Haynesworth clogging up the middle.  Opponents are gaining just under 80 yards a game, 2.7 yards per carry, and have managed just 2 touchdowns on the ground.  Last season, the Titans gave up 87 yards per game and 4 touchdowns.  Statistically, the Titans are the seventh best team in the NFL against the rush.

Takeaways

The Titans’ secondary has just 3 interceptions compared to 8 at this point last season.  The Titans have forced 3 fumbles, compared to 4 last season.

Other Factors

Home vs. The Road

The Titans have played on the road three times this season.  Last season they played at home three times in their first four games.  It should make little difference where the teams play except in a case like this when a team is slumping.  A home field advantage like the Titans have at LP Field can really provide a boost.

Quality of Competition

Last season the Titans started 4-0 against Jacksonville (5-11), Cincinnati (4-11-1), Houston (8-8), and Minnesota (10-6).  This season the Titans have started 0-4 against the defending Super Bowl Champions Pittsburgh (2-2), Houston (2-2), New York Jets (3-1), and Jacksonville (2-2).  The two schedules are comparable with this year’s slightly more difficult.  The Steelers are very good as usually and the Jets have a good defense with a young quarterback.  Jacksonville is improved from last season, especially offensively.  Houston has a dynamic offense that can really put points up.

Personnel Changes

The biggest losses were of course Albert Haynesworth to the Washington Redskins and Jim Schwartz to the Detroit Lions.  Chuck Cecil has replaced Schwartz, while Tony Brown and Jovan Haye have done a good job of filling in for Haynesworth.  The Titans lost only Chris Carr from the secondary last season.  The rushing defense has continued along its dominance, but the pass defense has surprisingly suffered.

Penalties

The Titans are averaging 5.5 penalties for almost 44 yards lost a game.  Their opponents are being penalized 4.75 times a game for almost 39 yards.  This is pretty much a wash.

Conclusions

The Titans are winless this year and looking at the numbers these are the reasons:

1. Falling behind early in games and having to pass to catch up
2. Getting away from the running game (only 25 attempts a game compared to over 35 attempts last season), while passing the ball 38.5 times a game.
3. Turnovers.  The Titans are averaging twice as many turnovers a game this season as they were last season.  Opponents are scoring on over 27% of the Titans’ turnovers.
4. The Titans cannot stop the pass, giving up over 300 yards per game.  With the exception of Andre Johnson, the Titans are making average receivers (the inconsistent Santonio Holmes, the solid Jerricho Cotchery, and even rookie Mike Sims-Walker) look like Pro-Bowlers.  This may be due to the loss of Albert Haynesworth and the pressure he can put on the quarterback.  A new defensive coordinator may also be playing a role.
5. The Titans have played three of four games on the road to open the season.  They have also played slightly better competition than last season.

The numbers suggest the Titans need to run the ball more, quit turning the ball over, and shut down the passing game.  The Titans lost very little in the secondary so it is surprising they are getting burned so badly.  They have given up 10 passing touchdowns.  Jeff Fisher is a heck of a coach, and I think we can all rest assured he will figure out a way to right the ship.  So everyone show up to help the Titans this weekend at JP Field if you are lucky enough to have tickets.  That secondary is going to need all the help it can get with Peyton coming to town.

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The Numbers

First Four Games of 2009

First Four Games of 2008